Josh Marshall says no one understands just why John Kerry is surging so fast in the polls. The answer seems obvious enough: the whole state is involved, the candidates are spending more time there than anywhere else- walking around, shaking hands, listening to people kvetch- and Kerry comes off better off the cuff and in person than Dean. People support 'the idea' of Dean, not the man. As far as his manner is concerned, he's a good stand in for John McCain, another awkward, arrogant SOB. The Kerry organization did not understand political theater, but Kerry understands what it means to be respectful and polite. For Dean it's the reverse. Simple, no?
This doesn't mean I'm betting either way. Dean's people say they aren't polled. Who knows.